QQQ Golden Cross
Classic long-only momentum strategy based on the MA50/MA200 golden cross on QQQ. Goes long when the 50-day MA crosses above the 200-day MA, and exits on the death cross. Simple, proven, low-maintenance.
📡 Current Signal
Golden cross active since Nov 2023. Position is HOLD. No new entry signal.
📊 Indicators
🧪 Backtest Results
| Period | Jan 2005 – Dec 2024 |
| Win Rate | 68% |
| CAGR | 14.7%🔒 Premium |
| Profit Factor | 3.21×🔒 Premium |
| Max Drawdown | -14.2%🔒 Premium |
| Total Trades | 14🔒 Premium |
📐 Methodology
## QQQ Golden Cross — Full Methodology
### Entry Criteria
1. **50-day SMA** crosses above the **200-day SMA** (golden cross)
2. **Confirmation:** Price must close above both MAs on the crossover day
3. **Volume:** 5-day average volume must be above the 50-day average volume (institutional participation)
### Exit Rules
- **Primary exit:** 50-day SMA crosses below 200-day SMA (death cross)
- **Emergency stop:** Close if drawdown from entry exceeds 15%
- **No trailing stop** — this is a trend-following system that rides big moves
### Position Sizing
- Allocate 25–50% of portfolio (this is a core position, not a trade)
- Can use QQQ shares or TQQQ at 1/3 size for leverage
### Why It Works
The golden cross captures major regime changes. Tech (QQQ) trends strongly — once momentum begins, it tends to persist. The 200-day MA acts as a "macro filter" keeping you out of bear markets.
### Backtest Notes
Tested on QQQ daily bars from Jan 2005 to Dec 2024. Only 14 round-trip signals in 20 years — very low frequency. 4 major winners that captured multi-year bull runs. The 2022 bear market was avoided entirely.
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