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NVDAvolatilityWAIT

NVDA Volatility Breakout

58% Win Rate0% confidenceSwing (3–15 days)

Captures explosive moves in NVDA when price breaks out of a low-volatility squeeze. Uses ATR expansion and volume spikes to identify the start of a new trend leg. Works in both directions.

πŸ“‘ Current Signal

WAITUpdated: 2025-02-25

NVDA volatility is elevated β€” no squeeze detected. Waiting for contraction phase.

πŸ“Š Indicators

ATR(14)Bollinger Bands(20,2)VolumeBB Width

πŸ§ͺ Backtest Results

PeriodJan 2020 – Dec 2024
Win Rate58%
CAGR28.6%πŸ”’ Premium
Profit Factor2.15Γ—πŸ”’ Premium
Max Drawdown-22.7%πŸ”’ Premium
Total Trades52πŸ”’ Premium

πŸ“ Methodology

## NVDA Volatility Breakout β€” Full Methodology

Β 

### Squeeze Detection

1. **ATR(14)** drops below its 20-period moving average for β‰₯ 5 consecutive days (volatility contraction)

2. **Bollinger Bands** (20, 2Οƒ) width is in the bottom 20th percentile of the last 100 days

Β 

### Entry Criteria (Long)

- Price closes above the upper Bollinger Band with ATR(1-day) > 1.5Γ— ATR(14)

- Volume is β‰₯ 2Γ— the 20-day average volume

Β 

### Entry Criteria (Short)

- Mirror of long: close below lower BB with ATR expansion and volume spike

Β 

### Exit Rules

- **Profit target:** 3Γ— ATR(14) from entry

- **Stop loss:** 1Γ— ATR(14) from entry (placed at the opposite BB)

- **Trailing stop:** After 2Γ— ATR gain, trail stop at 1Γ— ATR below the highest close

Β 

### Position Sizing

- Risk 1.5% of portfolio (NVDA is volatile β€” wider stops require smaller position)

Β 

### Backtest Notes

Tested on NVDA daily bars from Jan 2020 to Dec 2024. NVDA's AI-driven regime (2023–2024) produced outsized winners. Pre-2023 performance was more modest. Strategy benefits from NVDA's high beta and narrative-driven moves.

πŸ”’ Full methodology requires a subscription

🏷️ Tags

NVDAvolatilityswingbreakoutsqueeze

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⚠️ DISCLAIMER: All trading signals are AI-generated and for informational purposes only. This is NOT financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade at your own risk. TokenSpy is not a registered investment advisor.

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