BTC Trend Follower
Trend-following system for Bitcoin using the 50-day moving average as the trend filter and RSI momentum for entry timing. Designed to capture major BTC bull runs while avoiding extended drawdowns.
📡 Current Signal
BTC above 50-day MA. Existing position HOLD. No new entry trigger.
📊 Indicators
🧪 Backtest Results
| Period | Jan 2018 – Dec 2024 |
| Win Rate | 52% |
| CAGR | 35.2%🔒 Premium |
| Profit Factor | 2.87×🔒 Premium |
| Max Drawdown | -28.3%🔒 Premium |
| Total Trades | 23🔒 Premium |
📐 Methodology
## BTC Trend Follower — Full Methodology
### Trend Filter
- **Bullish regime:** BTC price is above the 50-day SMA
- **Bearish regime:** BTC price is below the 50-day SMA
### Entry Criteria (Long only)
1. BTC closes above the 50-day SMA after being below it (regime change)
2. **RSI(14)** is between 50 and 70 (confirms momentum, not overbought)
3. **Volume:** 7-day average volume must be rising (3 consecutive days of higher avg volume)
### Exit Rules
- **Primary exit:** BTC closes below the 50-day SMA for 3 consecutive days
- **Trailing stop:** 20% from the highest close since entry
- **No short positions** — BTC has a structural long bias due to halvings and adoption
### Position Sizing
- Allocate 5–15% of portfolio to BTC (high volatility asset)
- Scale in: 50% on initial signal, 50% on first pullback to 50-day MA that holds
### Backtest Notes
Tested on BTC/USD daily bars from Jan 2018 to Dec 2024. Captures the 2020–2021 bull run and 2023–2024 recovery. Avoids the worst of 2022 bear market. CAGR is high but drawdowns are significant — this is crypto.
🔒 Full methodology requires a subscription
🏷️ Tags
Get via API
Fetch this signal programmatically:
curl -X GET "https://www.tokenspy.ai/api/signals/btc-trend-follower" \
-H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY"⚠️ DISCLAIMER: All trading signals are AI-generated and for informational purposes only. This is NOT financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade at your own risk. TokenSpy is not a registered investment advisor.