BTC Halving Cycle

## BTC Halving Cycle — Full Methodology

### Halving Calendar

1. **Bitcoin halvings:** Occur every ~210,000 blocks (~4 years). Supply of new BTC cut in half.

2. **Historical halvings:** Nov 2012, Jul 2016, May 2020, Apr 2024

3. **Each halving has historically preceded a major bull run** peaking 12–18 months later

### Entry Criteria

1. **Pre-halving accumulation:** Enter long BTC 6 months before the estimated halving date

2. **On-chain confirmation:** Hash rate must be at or near all-time highs (miners healthy, network secure)

3. **Macro filter:** BTC must be above its 200-day SMA (not in a structural bear market)

4. Scale in: 25% each month for 4 months leading up to the halving

### Exit Rules

- **Time-based exit:** Begin selling 12 months after the halving (historically near cycle peaks)

- **Scale out:** Sell 25% per month over 4 months (12–16 months post-halving)

- **Parabolic indicator:** If BTC rises > 5× from halving-day price, accelerate exit to 50% per month

- **Emergency stop:** Exit 100% if BTC drops 35% from the post-halving high

### Position Sizing

- Allocate 5–15% of total portfolio to this strategy

- This is a high-conviction, low-frequency bet — only 1 trade per 4-year cycle

- Dollar-cost average into the position over 4–6 months

### Risk Warning

Past halving cycles may not predict future performance. As BTC market cap grows, percentage returns may diminish. Regulatory risk is significant. Never allocate more than you can afford to lose.

### Backtest Notes

Tested on BTC/USD data spanning 3 halving cycles (2012, 2016, 2020). The 2024 cycle is in progress. Average post-halving peak return: ~8× from halving-day price (declining each cycle: 100×, 30×, 8×). Sample size is small (3 cycles) — statistical significance is limited.