AAPL Support Bounce

## AAPL Support Bounce — Full Methodology

### Support Level Identification

1. **Dynamic support:** Scan for price levels that have been tested ≥ 3 times in the last 90 days with < 1% deviation

2. **Secondary support:** 200-day SMA acts as a macro floor

### Entry Criteria

1. **Price** touches or dips below the identified support level

2. **RSI(14)** is below 30 (oversold)

3. **Volume confirmation:** The bounce candle (close > open) must have volume ≥ 1.5× the 20-day average

4. Enter long on the close of the confirmation candle

### Exit Rules

- **Profit target:** Previous swing high or 2× ATR(14) from entry (whichever is closer)

- **Stop loss:** 1.5% below the support level — if support breaks, thesis is invalid

- **Time stop:** Exit after 15 trading days if neither target nor stop is hit

### Position Sizing

- Risk 1% of portfolio per trade

- Position size = (Portfolio × 0.01) / (Entry − Stop)

### Best Market Conditions

Works best in range-bound or gently uptrending markets where support levels are respected. Underperforms in sharp sell-offs where support levels break in succession. AAPL's institutional ownership provides reliable support bounces.

### Backtest Notes

Tested on AAPL daily bars from Jan 2018 to Dec 2024. Commission: $0.005/share. Slippage: 0.03%. Support levels recalculated on a rolling 90-day window. The strategy avoids earnings weeks to reduce gap risk.